Dramatic scenes in Belgrade on Thursday, in which demonstrators attacked the U.S. Embassy to protest Kosovo's declaration of independence, belie a situation that is worse than it appears, according to one analyst.
Jon Levy, analyst for Europe and Eurasia with the Eurasia Group, wrote to investors that there is "no change in the underlying political dynamic" surrounding Kosovo's declaration. "The government in Belgrade remains intact for the moment -- though as always it is unstable and could fall at some point."
Levy said that violence in Kosovo itself is also a risk, although Serbia isn't expected to militarily intervene in Kosovo, and "despite recent strong rebukes of the E.U., Serbia remains on track to join the E.U. at some point."
Large protests held Thursday in the Serbian capital were expected and announced well in advance, he commented. A report from Radio Free Europe said that 150,000 gathered at what was termed a "people's rally" to protest Kosovo's decision to declare its independence. Waving Serbian flags, they reportedly carried flags that said "Stop U.S. Terror."
Several hundred broke into the U.S. Embassy and set part of it ablaze as night fell in Belgrade, which had closed based on expectations of violence, RFE reported. It marks the second time in a week that the embassy has come under attack, after ultranationalists attacked a McDonald's and other Western interests in Belgrade.
The Associated Press reported that the small fires at the U.S. Embassy were quickly extinguished. CNN later reported that one body was found inside the embassy, apparently that of a protestor who got caught up in the blaze.
The United States has been a strong advocate of Kosovo's independence from Serbia and among the first to recognize the new state, the New York Times reported. The Croatian embassy was reportedly attacked as well, while Bosnian and Turkish embassies also were targeted. The United States, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and most other E.U. members announced that they would recognize Kosovo as an independent state; but Russia, China, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, and Spain, among other countries, reportedly have said that they would not.
In recent days, Western leaders have been increasingly alarmed by comments from Serbia's hard-line Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who helped lead the revolution that overthrew Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. "As long as we live, Kosovo is Serbia," Kostunica told the crowd in Belgrade, according to the New York Times. "We're not alone in our fight. President Putin is with us."
Moscow has been increasingly popular among Serbians by blocking Kosovo's integration into the international community, but many in Serbia realize the Kremlin's interest is limited and driven by self-interest, according to intellectuals in Serbia.
Earlier in the week, analysts at Goldman Sachs commented in an email that countries refusing to recognize Kosovo's independence "will presumably come around eventually, though that process may take years or even decades.
"The most important -- and most difficult -- step will be for Serbia itself to recognise Kosovo; we believe it will do so only if and when recognition is the country's final obstacle in the way of E.U. accession -- and even then, domestic misgivings about the loss of the province could delay E.U. membership by many years."
Further, the Goldman Sachs analysts said, they would expect that in time the pragmatists sharing power in Belgrade with moderate nationalists would gain ground, "as nationalist passions over the loss of Yugoslav territories subside and as more historical evidence surfaces about the atrocities committed during the wars of the 1990s."
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